By Arthur Wyss
If there is a global economic collapse (GEC), it will certainly hit the USA hard. Is there a safe haven? The short answer is no, but you can reduce the impact if you take action in advance of the collapse.
Unfortunately there is no completely safe place on earth to avoid the effects of a GEC but all things are relative. The key is to reduce risk. The USA is likely to suffer more extreme effects of a GEC than most of the rest of the world. There are several reasons for this, but first of all is that we have such a long way to fall. Americans enjoy a standard of living that is the envy of the world. Another reason is the amount of debt already accumulated and the need of the USA to continue to finance the massive American deficit by selling more debt internationally. In a GEC it will not be as easy for America to find buyers for their debt as it is now. The current flood of foreign money flowing into the USA buying American debt (Treasury bonds and notes) will dry up. Businesses will be hit hard as orders for their goods and services dwindle. Every sector of the economy will feel the sting. It is likely to hit home and hit hard.
America has a pretty good social services safety net for those who are down on their luck, but when almost everybody is down on their luck all at the same time the system will experience stress like never before. Even if the social services can keep up, continued government spending with nothing to back the money up will contribute to run-away inflation. It will be hard to find a silver lining in the clouds of a GEC.
The rest of the world will also suffer, but where will the suffering be least felt? Nations that depend heavily on exports will suffer greatly. Nations that are self-sufficient and not dependent on exports will fare much better.
The basic necessities of life are often considered food, clothing, and shelter. When people are hard up for money they will cut back on discretionary spending. People do not have to have new clothes to survive. The expense of shelter can also be reduced out of necessity. Perhaps two or three families can live in one house or apartment. Of the basics of life, food is the most constant necessity. There are those who say it might serve Americans well to cut back on a few meals, but in any case food is always at the top of the list of necessities.
It is a safe bet to presume that food production, processing, and distribution will be the most stable sectors of the economy in the event of a GEC. Some of the middlemen between the producers and the consumers may have to worry a bit about keeping their place at the trough as times get hard, but people have to eat no matter what. If you plan to stay in the eye of the tiger and ride it out, your best bet would be to shift your assets into some component of the food production-processing-distribution chain.
If you are considering relocating to avoid being at ground-zero in the event of a GEC, then there are a few places that will probably fare well enough. People living in food exporting nations such as New Zealand will not have to worry about food shortages in the event of a GEC. Unfortunately for the "Kiwis" New Zealand is not self-sufficient in energy. There are many poorer nations that also produce a surplus of food. The poorer nations and their people have a much shorter distance to fall, but poor nations tend to have correspondingly poor quality of life. The safe haven list starts to get very short when you look for a country that is energy self-sufficient, has a good quality of life, has an economy not heavily dependent on exports and produces a surplus of agricultural products.
The list is short, but there are such places.
The author, Arthur Wyss is a resident of Beijing, China. He specializes in immigration assistance for those who wish to live in Brazil. He also operates Brazil Land Sales which primarily sells land in the State of Tocantins, Brazil. He is the former President of Adventure Spa Cruise. His website is: http://www.brazil-land-sales.com/index.htm
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